And now the fun begins

The election turns interesting

After taking a commanding lead in polling following President Biden’s disastrous debate performance, former President Trump is now nearly two points behind Vice President Harris.  Markets have begun to unwind the “Trump trade” that dominated price action in July, but not evenly and not fully.  Backend yield curve steepening has stalled but not reversed and the dollar has continued to fall, but large-capitalization equities have bounced back nearly fully against small- and mid-cap stocks.

Is the Harris surge for real and durable?  Or does it reflect the polling errors that plagued the 2016 and 2020 elections, or a shiny new candidate not yet tested?  In this election deep dive I examine how the underlying sources of polling errors in the last two elections may be responsible for much of the fluctuations in polls this year, and of course, who is really winning.