Leitmotif 6: A “Western Spring”?

The center-left/right elites risk provoking a populist backlash

Among my Leitmotifs for 2024 was my worry that a crisis of Western elites would lead to a sharp rise in risk premia as the West’s ruling classes and wealthy lost faith in their own societies amid simultaneous internal and external fragmentation. As with my debt sustainability worries (Leitmotif 5), my warning was too early. But I also may have neglected the dangers of passing through earlier stages of the Kübler-Ross model of grief, most notably anger.

This is especially notable in Europe where elites increasingly act like wounded animals lashing out at threats to their power. This is a dangerous cocktail in countries where the elites have lost the faith of the governed. The masses already angered at years of being ignored by their governing classes are losing their patience, raising the question: are we on the verge of a “Western Spring”?