Observations: Navigating the consensus
Insights gleaned from business and central bank economists
Monday and Tuesday I had the pleasure of joining an esteemed group of business economists and central bankers at the annual International Economic Symposium, well organized and generously co-hosted by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) and the Central Bank of Ireland. I was invited to the conference themed “Trade, Technology, and Policy: The Changing Dynamics of Growth” to speak on a panel focused on the “Challenges to Unlocking Growth in Europe and the US.” The annual NABE-Eurosystem symposia are unique in bringing together a relatively small group (about 75) business-focused economists spanning a range of industries with central bankers and a few academic economists. The intimate format provides for honest, friendly debate about the economic trends most affecting businesses. This year’s symposium was especially lively given the backdrop of tariff toing and froing from the previous six week (and the announcement of the China-US “reset” just as the conference opened).
As readers will be aware, my framework tends towards (unintentional) contrarianism, hence for me events like the symposium are an opportunity to orient myself relative to the consensus and see where market opportunities lie. (As one might thus expect, most conference participants described my contributions to it as “spicy,” “controversial” or “thought provoking.”) The symposium operates under Chatham House rules, so I cannot quote anyone, but in this note I will provide my insights into the consensus and where I differ with it on tariffs, inflation, and the outlook for economies, markets and central banks’ policy.