Observations: Rage rolls on
Underlying recent political upheaval across the world, The Politics of Rage grows
European election results, rolling in as I write, are reaffirming the prediction I made in 2016 in The Politics of Rage1 and updated earlier this year: the trend of “populism” that began 30+ years ago is nowhere near cresting. But it is not just in Europe. Elections that rocked markets in South Africa, India, and Mexico, despite quite different outcomes, all bear the signs of the Politics of Rage spreading and extending its capacity to surprise both political analysts and markets.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s convictions on 34 criminal counts in the US reinforce my concerns about a related risk to markets this year: the rising chance of political violence in a country that issues the global “risk-free” asset, but whose politics and governance increasingly resemble Bananastan.
Here I quickly review the lessons I take away from the election results and political events of the last few weeks and their implications for markets.