You say you want a Revolution...

Dictator or patriot, Donald Trump is plotting a revolution

“Trump entered the White House with an uncertain policy agenda beyond a vague craving for ‘reform’ (or revenge) and a determination to settle relationships between the states and the illegal immigrants within their borders. On these two matters he moved quickly and decisively.

During the campaign, Trump had charged the Biden bureaucracy with fraud and with working against his election. As President, he initiated sweeping removals among high-ranking government officials—Washington bureau chiefs, land and customs officers, and federal marshals and attorneys. Trump claimed to be purging the corruption, laxity, and arrogance that came with long tenure, and restoring the opportunity for government service to the citizenry at large through ‘rotation in office.’ But haste and gullibility did much to confuse his purpose.”¹

Is this a prophecy for the second Trump Administration? No, it’s the introduction to a history of Andrew Jackson, America’s 7^th president, by historian Daniel Feller with the bolded words substituted: “Trump” for “Jackson”, “Biden” for “Adams” and “illegal immigrants” for “Indian tribes.” Donald Trump’s comparison of himself to Andrew Jackson in his first term was much derided by his critics because Mr. Trump was born wealthy and is not a war hero as President Jackson was. But those critics miss the point: no President in American history is more comparable to Mr. Trump in rhetoric, temperament, policy inclination, view of Executive Branch authority, and composition of both his political base and opponents than America’s (previously) most controversial president and “first populist,” Andrew Jackson.² Even the events within each man’s presidency are eerily comparable.

Like Trump, Jackson was both vilified and lionized, and views of his legacy have waxed and waned with history. But no serious historian denies that Jackson’s volatile, scandal-plagued presidency was consequential. Jackson transformed America’s original and longest running debate on government, Federalism versus Jeffersonianism by infusing the latter with a more powerful definition of executive power and nationalism that paradoxically strengthened both individuals’ and states’ rights.

Thomas Jefferson wrote to a colleague that “The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants;”³ i.e. that any democracy must regularly undergo revolutions to preserve its citizens’ liberty. Donald Trump’s campaign promises, considered in detail, amount to a revolutionary challenge to American governance as currently constituted. Seen in that light, his cabinet picks make more sense and confirm his revolutionary intent. Whether it ends up strengthening US democracy as Jackson’s revolution did or destroying it, it will be a volatile and potentially violent process that markets appear to have underestimated.

This piece is relatively long, so I will save the market and asset allocation implications from it for my next piece (for paid subscribers). Accordingly, since it is likely to be of broad interest, I am making this article freely available. If you are not already a paid subscriber, please consider becoming one.

Key insights

• Donald Trump’s campaign platform is nothing short of a constitutional (counter) revolution against a century of Federalist and Federal bureaucracy ascendancy.

• The revolution is based on two Jacksonian paradoxes: Strengthening the office of the president within the Executive Branch while weakening its bureaucracy; and strengthening national sovereignty while supporting states’ rights.

• In that context, President Trump’s political appointments make more sense: a wrecking crew of political outcasts to distract and dismantle rogue bureaucracies, with surer hands in critical executive roles or acting to reassure markets and foreign nations.

• Mr. Trump’s revolution faces many obstacles, but none larger than the Federal bureaucracy. The revolution’s chances of total success are low, and volatility is certain.

• But there likely will be significant rewards to even partial success, and full success could both supercharge the US economy and reassert America as the lynchpin of global stability.

A brief history of Federalists, Jeffersonians & Jacksonians

Donald Trump’s election reflects the re-ascendence of the Jeffersonian side of America’s longest debate over the role of the Federal government. On one side, the Federalists, led by Alexander Hamilton, argued for a strong, interventionist Federal government both at home and abroad. On the other side, Thomas Jefferson pushed for greater rights of states, limits on the Federal government and a nativist isolationism in foreign policy. Andrew Jackson was a forceful proponent of the Jeffersonian vision with an important twist: the assertion of executive authority within a powerful Executive Branch to elevate of the interests of common people over elites like Jefferson.

The parallels between the rhetoric, policies and temperaments of Trump and Jackson are uncanny and are listed in Figure 1. If history doesn’t repeat, the history of the Jackson Administration weirdly rhymes with US political history since 2016. Andrew Jackson won a resounding popular election in 1828, campaigning on a platform of government reform after what he called a “corrupt bargain” among the elites denied him victory in the 1824 election. The first two years of his presidency were stymied by the Petticoat Scandal, precipitated by elites that rejected both he and his Secretary of War, and which resulted in the resignation of his full cabinet. He passed the 1830 Indian Removal Act authorizing the expulsion of Native Americans from lands east of the Mississippi River and ignored a 5-1 majority of the Supreme Court striking it down. His populist battle to kill the Second Bank of the United States was a success but earned him the only censure of a president by the Senate. His backing of a controversial tariff policy provoked the Nullification Crisis when Southern states claimed the right to ignore them. Despite his strong advocacy for states’ rights, Jackson asserted Federal authority, preserving the union for another three decades until the Civil War. Jackson avoided both foreign entanglements and wars as president, while reforming, professionalizing and expanding the US Navy. President Jackson was also the only US president to completely pay off the Federal debt.

Both President Trump’s campaign and cabinet appointments suggest that he has the potential to be not only as controversial as President Jackson, but as consequential. President Trump takes office for the second time after nearly a century of (bipartisan) Federalist ascendancy, starting with Woodrow Wilson and accelerating with Franklin Roosevelt, in which the size and scope of the Federal government within the US, and America in global affairs, have expanded dramatically. Those parallel ascendancies have provoked dual counter-reactions from the US citizenry in the form of Mr. Trump and from a coalition of anti-hegemon nations led by China. The difference with President Trump’s first term, judging by both his campaign and personnel choices, is that this time he has a well defined plan of action for a Jacksonian revolution (or more properly, counter-revolution) against the Federalist state.

¡Viva la revolución!

I always viewed President Trump’s first term in office as the electorate throwing a hand grenade into the machine of an unresponsive government. But his second term is better seen as a carefully plotted revolution to dismantle the machine and replace it. Most of the post-election commentary and analyses I read lazily assume that the first term is the best roadmap for the second, focusing on immigration, tariffs, tax cuts, fiscal dominance of the Federal Reserve, and revenge on his political enemies.⁴ But a careful reading of his campaign materials describes a detailed, methodical plan for a wholesale revolution of the US government from within that aims to dramatically reduce its size and scope in American life, while increasing its responsiveness to voters through a reassertion of presidential powers. His controversial cabinet choices support that interpretation.

Agenda 47: Revolutionary scope and actions

To get a glimpse of the revolution that Donald Trump is planning, skip past the campaign slogans on the Trump-Vance campaign website and dive into the 44 campaign videos describing his Agenda 47.⁵ Although replete with Mr. Trump’s trademark hyperbolic rhetoric, the campaign videos eschew his usual oversimplification in favor of detailed, constitutionally grounded, specific proposals to dismantle, upend and reshape every function of American government along Jacksonian principles.

Agenda 47 cuts to the core of the two main frustrations driving the Politics of Rage: fury at a government perceived to be of and for the elites rather than average citizens, and at a sense of national sovereignty lost. As Jackson did, Trump seeks to address these popular frustrations by strengthening the president – the only representative in government elected by all Americans – within the Executive Branch and the Executive Branch within the Federal government, and by using that authority to defend individual liberties and states’ rights withinthe union, while asserting Federal authority to protect national sovereignty from both the states and foreign enemies.

In Appendix I, I have distilled Agenda 47 into bullet points categorized in ten Jacksonian priorities, but it still requires nearly 1,400 words. Appendix II presents bullet-point summaries of all 44 campaign videos and runs over 3,500 words! While I encourage you to at least skim through both to better understand both the detail and revolutionary scope, the ten summarized priorities are:

1. Increase the accountability of the Executive Branch of the Federal government to presidential authoritythrough increased powers to dismiss Federal employees; require White House approval for new rule making; and use presidential impound authority to force bureaucracies to act on the president’s priorities.

2. Rebalance the separation of powers between the Executive, Legislative and Judicial branches of government by restoring presidential impound authority (the ability to redirect or reject congressionally approved funds within the Executive Branch); bringing independent agencies under Executive authority; reforming FISA (foreign intelligence) courts; and asserting presidential prerogative for recess appointments.

3. Increase the democratic accountability of government by pushing for term limits in Congress; investigating and prosecuting allegations of past bureaucratic abuses; overhauling the Department of Justice and intelligence agencies; strengthening the independence of internal auditors; requiring greater transparency in agency rulemaking; dispersing bureaucracies across the country; banning for 7 years government employees’ employment with companies they regulated or worked with; and reinstating merit-based hiring, retention and pay.

4. Protecting individual rights by strengthening free speech protections; restricting governments’, firms’ and NGOs’ abilities to impede free speech; investigating and prosecuting government violations of free speech and civil rights associated with equity and inclusion policies; protect religious liberties, particularly in defending children’s education from “secular religious” ideologies; strengthen parents’ rights over their children’s educations; and protect minors from gender transitions.

5. Promote individual welfare and economic growth by improving and making free or cheaper education and skills-acquisition at all ages and incomes; expanding school choice; promoting innovation, infrastructure, manufacturing and energy availability through deregulation, incentives and through the creation of 10 new “Freedom Cities” on Federal land with streamlined regulatory law;⁶ addressing chronic childhood diseases; protecting Social Security and Medicare (elderly health) benefits; eradicating homelessness through reintegration and treatment, or institutionalization of the severely mentally ill; and protecting public safety by aggressively combating crime, narcotics, and human trafficking.

6. Promoting the interests of average citizens over elites and corporations by funding a new, free, online university for all Americans with taxes and fines on elite universities’ endowments; prosecuting academic institutions and NGOs that impede free speech or violate students’ civil rights; banning collusion of government agencies with tech firms and data aggregators; and reforming immunity legislation for tech platforms and social media companies’ online content to protect free speech.

7. Protect states’ rights and devolve Federal powers by shifting education policy from the Federal government to the states; using Federal funding “carrots” rather than Federal rules to encourage states to adopt Federal guidelines for education, crime and homelessness; launching a competition among states to create 10 new “Freedom Cities” with streamlined regulation on Federal land; and repeal Federal mandates for zoning and development.

8. Promote national sovereignty at home by securing the borders against illegal immigration, drug trafficking and crime; ending birthright citizenship, Federal support and work permits for illegal immigrants, and cracking down on non-compliance with Federal immigration enforcement; designating drug cartels as terrorist organizations and using the military to attack and interdict their operations abroad; using the National Guard to enforce domestic law and order where states fail; using trade policy, incentives and deregulation of energy to promote domestic manufacturing, particularly of critical medicines; and promote patriotism in education, national events and infrastructure.

9. Defend the US against foreign adversaries by rebuilding a modernized military, its depleted stockpiles and infrastructure; reforming procurement, improving military morale to increase recruitment; developing a comprehensive missile defense shield over all US territory; ending the war in Ukraine and other non-strategic drains on American weapons stockpiles and defense readiness; restructuring NATO and other alliances to align with “America First” priorities; decoupling economically from China and other adversarial nations; and dismantling the “globalist neo-con” national security establishment to pursue “peace through strength” rather than interventionist foreign policy.

10. Pursue fiscal responsibility through a reduction in the size and scope of government by cutting regulations that require more bureaucrats to enforce; pursuing aggressive cost reduction for every agency in every year of the administration; reclaiming presidential impound authority to cut unnecessary spending; and instituting a “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) to review each Federal departments’ employment and budget needs, and to find cost saving efficiencies.

Cabinet posts: rhyme and reason

Both the commentariat – even allies of President Trump – and markets have been exasperated and befuddled by President Trump’s cabinet picks. But once you appreciate the scope of his ambitions, his cabinet choices make more sense and affirm his (counter) revolutionary intent. The nominees neatly cleave into two distinct groups: a wrecking crew of controversial political “outcasts” charged with dismantling their respective departments; and a safe set of hands for positions critical either to executive function or to national security and finance. Among the latter are a “Kitchen cabinet” of policy czars authorized to implement policy grand strategy across departments, and a set of loyalist technocratic “foot soldiers” in subcabinet positions.

The wrecking crew

The outcasts all have a common trait: extreme antipathy for and often a sense of persecution by the bureaucracies that they have been nominated to lead. In President Trump’s first term, because he was unprepared to win and lacked a large-enough trusted network of qualified appointees, he had to staff his administration with establishment Republicans that either actively sought to undermine his populist agenda or lacked the necessary zeal to push it through a recalcitrant bureaucracy. Four years of learning on the job taught him that to be effective he needs appointees willing to break the glass. Four more years campaigning have swelled his personal network with both loyalists and fellow revolutionaries.

President Trump’s most controversial nominees are not being sent by him to manage the departments they’re nominated for, but to take sledgehammers to powerful bureaucracies viewed by President Trump and his supporters as having gone rogue and abusive of power.

Thus, Matt Gaetz wasn’t nominated as Attorney General to crush investigations into President Trump, but to crush the Justice Department he frequently sparred with in Congress (a job now given to Trump loyalist Pam Bondi since Mr. Gaetz’s withdrawal). Tulsi Gabbard wasn’t nominated as Director of National Intelligence because she’s a Russian mole, but because she’s been accused of being one by the US intelligence community and thus will be ruthless in attacking it from within. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s fight is not with vaccines but with what he perceives as endemic corruption at the Department of Health and Human Services. Former soldier and Fox News commentator Pete Hegseth wasn’t nominated to set strategy at the Defense Department, but “to fire a ton of generals” in line with a reported draft Executive Order of the president-elect to commission a board authorized to purge the US officer corps.⁷ Education Secretary nominee Linda McMahon has long advocated President Trump’s plan to close her prospective department. Doug Burgum battled the Department of the Interior over land use as Governor of North Dakota and now is charged with doing so from within; ditto Chris Wright at Energy and Kristi Noem at Homeland Security.

The “outcast” nominees also serve another purpose: the circus surrounding them provides a useful distraction while trusted and capable hands installed both around and below them implement the president’s revolution.

Capable hands in critical roles

In contrast to the outcasts, most of President Trump’s picks for critical Executive Branch functions, powerful policy czars charged with leading key initiatives across departments, or subcabinet positions necessary to implement reforms, all are well regarded for their competency and loyalty to both President Trump and the cause of revolution.

White House Counsel pick Bill McGinley and Solicitor General selection D. John Sauer are both top-flight lawyers who have personally represented Mr. Trump and will be responsible for defending the president and the Executive Branch in constitutional conflicts with states or other branches of government. Matt Gaetz’s replacement as Attorney General nominee, Pam Bondi, is another experienced loyalist. Mike Waltz, a well respected former Special Forces officer, Congressman and Defense policy strategist, is nominated for one of the most critical but also misunderstood roles in the White House. The National Security Advisor is responsible for coordinating policy across departments and acting as the president’s “honest broker” in disputes between them. The role of White House Chief of Staff is as gatekeeper to the president and Trump campaign manager, Susie Wiles, is perfectly chosen given her extensive political management experience, and even more importantly, her experience in managing Mr. Trump, access to him and his time.

The “Kitchen Cabinet” (and sink)

Mr. Trump also has created a suite of powerful policy czars charged with leading major campaign promises across departments, similar to President Jackson’s informal “Kitchen Cabinet” of advisors. Tom Homan, the former acting Director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement has been given the wide-ranging role of “Border Czar.” He has promised “shock and awe” in effecting the president’s promised deportation initiative and to cut funding to states and cities that do not cooperate.⁸ Although not yet announced, President Trump reportedly intents to appoint Robert Lighthizer, the tough US Trade Representative from his first term, as “Trade Czar” with similarly wide-ranging responsibility for an integrated trade, economic and national security policy.⁹ Most notoriously, he also has appointed Vivek Ramaswamy and Elon Musk – who presumably will bring a sink with him on his first day – to lead a “Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)” with a mandate to slash the size of the Federal government, identify and eliminate waste and fraud, and increase government efficiency.¹⁰

Foot soldiers

Mr. Trump’s supporting and subcabinet appointments are equalling telling, especially those in the roles closest to his two most controversial nominees, Tulsi Gabbard and (until his withdrawal) Matt Gaetz. The Director of the CIA, a cabinet position, is more hands-on position within the intelligence bureaucracy than the coordination role of DNI. Mr. Trump has nominated John Ratcliffe to the role, a loyalist and former DNI who has had four years to consider how to reform its bureaucracy. Deputy Attorney General nominee Todd Blanche and his law partner Emil Bove, nominated as Principal Associate Deputy Attorney General, both are Trump loyalists who defended him privately in criminal proceedings, and are former assistant US attorneys experienced in national security, data intrusions and corruption cases.

Reassuring faces to the world abroad

At State and Treasury, by protocol the two highest ranking cabinet positions and those most important to the critical non-voter constituencies of markets and foreign nations, Mr. Trump has chosen candidates intended to reassure that America’s foreign policy and finances remain in safe, credible hands, even if a revolution is raging at home. Marco Rubio is seen as a respected foreign policy hawk who provides at least a patina of continuity with prior US administrations. Scott Bessent is a non-controversial, well respected hedge fund manager who understands how to speak to markets and inspires confidence in US Treasury debt and the dollar.

Strategy or chaos?

My contention that President Trump’s cabinet choices are strategic and well considered contrasts with the consensus view that his selection process is “disorganized” and his nominees are “unvetted,” “irresponsible” and “reckless.”¹¹ Yet, the pace of appointments is setting records despite his campaign’s rejection of Federal transition funds and pre-vetting of candidates by the outgoing Biden Administration due to mistrust created by Mr. Trump’s experience with the Obama Administration in his prior transition.¹² Most of the descriptions of “chaos” are based on the nomination of people that are not considered appropriate for their roles by the establishment, but that is the point of their nominations: it is an intentional assault on the establishment.

What could possibly go wrong?

Even if my assessment is correct, as Robert Burns wrote, the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry. However well Mr. Trump and his advisors have plotted their counter-revolution, the odds are stacked against them. Mr. Trump has only narrow majorities in both houses of Congress, potentially for only two years, depending on the 2026 midterm elections. Additionally, he likely will face numerous lawsuits in courts that he helped stack with strict constructionists who may not share his Jacksonian interpretation of the Constitution in conflicts with states or other branches of government.

The agenda also will face opposition from Democrat-controlled states and localities, setting up constitutional battles over states’ rights and Federal authority. Blue states have been preparing for months to block his policies, especially immigrant deportations.¹³ But this is a two-edged sword for the states that chose to oppose Mr. Trump’s agenda. Democrat-controlled states and cities already have been losing population to faster growing Republican-controlled states with lower taxes and less regulation. If President Trump’s federalized approach of providing more funding for crime, schools and immigration to states that cooperate with the Federal government leads to better outcomes in those states, rebel blue states may face either more serious erosion of their tax bases or a voter rebellion (see Figure 3).

President Trump also faces idiosyncratic risks of failure. In his first term he lacked a clear plan and was plagued by a thin bench of appointees that were either misaligned, incompetent or both. While he has a clearer plan of action and his appointees likely are better aligned this time, agency and execution risks remain large for such an ambitious agenda. Although MAGA is now more clearly organized as a movement, it remains undeveloped as a political party.

That makes the revolution susceptible to Trump-specific risks. Mr. Trump is 78 years old and faced three assassination attempts by deranged American opponents during the campaign. But Mexican drug cartels are a real risk as well. Mr. Trump has promised a total war of extinction on the cartels. Mexico’s elections earlier this year were marked by almost three dozen political assassinations and the cartels are notorious for beheading whole villages to make a point.¹⁴ There also is a risk that the cartels may apply coercive pressure on his political appointees.

Jackson, Sulla or Cæsar?

Even alive and healthy, Mr. Trump is an idiosyncratic risk that many fear harbors authoritarian intent. He is famously thin-skinned and combative, and reportedly is deeply susceptible to the last person to have his ear.¹⁵ These qualities may increase the agency problems he faces and misdirect efforts.

As to his dictatorial inclinations, there is no question that Mr. Trump is intent upon wholly dismantling and remaking the US government. But that does not necessarily mean into a dictatorship. As I described in Leitmotif 6 of my May you live in interesting times series, even with a wholesale reform of the US government, the US Constitution places too many checks and balances in the path of would-be dictators. Further, unlike President Obama’s Administration, which jailed reporters for not revealing their sources,¹⁶ or President Biden’s Administration that held many January 6^th rioters in jail without bail or charges,¹⁷ President Trump never jailed his political opponents or numerous leakers in his first administration, despite consistent claims by his opponents that he would.¹⁸

Yet, there is a risk that he is an American Sulla rather than Cæsar. Sulla was a Roman patrician who made himself dictator to reform the Roman Republic before peaceably giving it up. But his dictatorship may have laid the foundations for Julius Cæsar’s later. President Trump’s heavy-handed approach to pressure state officials and his own Vice President to overturn the 2020 election, his irresponsible encouragement of the mob of supporters that eventually rioted in an attempt to halt certification of the election on 6 January 2021, and some of his reported private and public statements about executive authority suggest that even if he intends to preserve the republic, like Sulla, he is willing to overstep norms and perhaps legal bounds that stand in his way.

While I admit it is a risk, on balance, my read of President Trump is instead as a reincarnation of President Jackson, a president whom his contemporaries also feared had “monarchical” inclinations but ultimately left a strong republic after two terms in office. As I have detailed, President Trump’s reform agenda is entirely consistent with Jackson’s: creation of a strong, responsive executive within a republican democracy.

Instead, I see a powerful and resistant Federal bureaucracy as the biggest challenge to Mr. Trump’s revolution. But his plan to tame it also offers the greatest potential for reward if successful.

Mission impossible?

The Federal bureaucracy built over the last century is large, powerful and has endured numerous presidents from both parties who have tried and failed to trim it, tame it or even manage it.¹⁹ Its 2 million employees – over 10 million when Postal employees, Federal contractors, and active military service members are included²⁰ – has nearly a century of hysteresis, laws and court precedence to protect it. Anyone who has worked in the US Federal government – and I have both as a civil servant and as a presidential appointee – will tell you that the bureaucracy is a power unto itself and the most successful presidents and their appointees either buy it off (expand it) or find ways to work around it rather than fight it.

One does not need to be a ”deep-state” conspiracy theorist to see that the Federal bureaucracy is more opposed to President Trump and his agenda than any other group. Figure 2 shows how far out of alignment with the rest of America the Federal employees, contractors and the citizens economically dependent on the Federal bureaucracy are. While President Trump beat Vice President Harris in the popular vote 50% to 48%, District of Columbia residents voted 90% to 7% for Ms. Harris. Washington’s anti-Trump vote stands out relative to even famously progressive cities like San Francisco or New York, or to the voting intentions of strongly Democratic demographics and even self-identified Democrats.

The civil service is already girding for war after openly defying President Trump in his first term. As a defensive prophylactic, in April of this year, the Office of Personnel Management issued new guidance redefining classes of Federal employment to circumvent a draft Executive Order that President Trump campaigned on to remove civil servants.²¹ In President Trump’s first term, civil servants wrote op-eds in The New York Times publicly proclaiming their insubordination and bragged after the 2020 election of their active coordination with media and NGOs to prevent his re-election.²² The “resistance” was extensive and well organized with widespread instances of career staff refusing policy directives, omitting or provided misleading information to political appointees in policy briefings, and regularly leaking damaging, sometimes classified, information to the press.²³

...But not hopeless

Yet, there are several reasons to think the mission is not hopeless. First, Mr. Trump showed unusual determination, relative to his predecessors, in his first term and appears more determined now. Despite being ill-prepared for office and lacking aligned appointees, civilian Federal employment declined in the first two years of Mr. Trump’s first term (yet expanded again by the end of his term).²⁴

Second, this time Mr. Trump has not only better alignment of his political appointees but a popular mandate for reform, even in “blue” states. Not only did Mr. Trump win the popular vote and a landslide in the Electoral College, but he made significant gains with nearly every demographic, and importantly, within deep blue states. Figure 3 shows the shift towards Mr. Trump in the popular vote in each state in 2024 versus President Biden’s margin of state victory in 2020. While there were some big shifts among states that were marginally pro-Trump in 2020 (notably Florida and Texas), the biggest shifts in votes towards him came in deep blue states like California, Massachusetts, New York, and New Jersey. Even the District of Columbia, despite being an extreme outlier, shifted to Mr. Trump by 3 percentage points.

Third, in addition to setting headcount and cost reduction goals for each department, he has created an external auditor – DOGE – whose sole purpose is to find cost efficiencies and headcount reductions across all government agencies and departments. This is important because no matter how aligned his within-department appointees are, they also have personal incentives to accomplish something notable with their departments during their short tenures. Those personal incentives require motivated staff, and thus conflict with deep layoffs. This is why many companies hire external consultants to lead employee and cost reduction efforts. DOGE is effectively an external consultant that department and agency heads can blame for job cuts.

Fourth, the personnel Mr. Trump has assigned to lead DOGE – Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy – are uniquely qualified to complete “Mission Impossible.” Mr. Musk is known for setting completely unreasonable goals and then achieving them. Mr. Musk has repeatedly achieved what was deemed impossible by nearly every expert, including creating from scratch both an electric car company and the world’s leading rocket manufacturer. The latter is particularly relevant since, as a government contractor, Mr. Musk understands well the inefficiencies and corruption in government procurement. In Mr. Ramaswamy, Mr. Musk has been paired with a young, uncompromising reform zealot who has presidential ambitions of his own and is seeking to make a mark with American voters.

Finally, the mission is being driven by three men – Mr. Trump, Mr. Musk and Mr. Ramaswamy – who have a history of breaking conventions and reinterpreting laws constructively to their goals. Many have noted that DOGE has no formal authority and likely would require either congressional or judicial support to achieve many of the cuts in government employment, budgets and departments it is tasked with. But within the administration, the only authority that it needs is the president’s, and it strikes me as unlikely that the world’s richest man would accept a toothless position.

What would success look like?

If I am correct on President Trump’s intent and he is as successful as President Jackson in instituting his revolution, the gains for America as a nation, for its economy and for US asset prices could be immense. Success on all fronts would make a stronger, more stable national polity, a more productive, faster growing economy, potentially even a more fiscally sound state, and as a result a far more formidable America on the world stage.

By addressing the underlying frustrations of the Politics of Rage – responsiveness of representative government and national sovereignty – it would help to ease, perhaps greatly, deep political divisions in America. That is even more likely if President Trump’s federated approach on many policies creates natural competition between states that diffuses tensions between states and the Federal government as voters either leave blue states or join the revolution. Even partial success, i.e. slowing immigration, increasing the responsiveness of the Federal bureaucracy to voters, reducing crime, homelessness, and educational inequalities, is likely to dampen many of the political tensions dividing America.

The same is true of slimming down the bureaucracy and its regulatory reach. Reducing regulatory burdens benefits all businesses, but especially the smaller businesses that drive innovation since the effective “tax” on them is larger due to scale. Any reduction in regulatory burdens is likely to reinforce the innovations and technological progress that have fueled Localization and the capex engine currently driving the US economy. If DOGE achieves meaningful reductions in the Federal bureaucracy, it likely will supercharge US total factor productivity, potential economic growth and returns to capital.

A leaner more efficient government, in turn, will put the US on a sounder fiscal trajectory and perhaps even return it to sustainability as spending shrinks and revenues grow more rapidly with the economy.

Because each of these effects compound, a more politically cohesive country, with a stronger, innovation-led economy, and more sustainable finances will make the US a more daunting global power. If the US manages to avoid war with its strategic rivals while rebuilding itself and its military, it likely will stabilize and perhaps even reverse the course of Global entropy in the coming decade.

Revolutions, Uncertainty & Complexity cascades

Whether or not Mr. Trump and his MAGA movement succeed in their revolution or are thwarted by the obstacles I described above, the path is likely to be bumpy and volatile for both American politics and markets.

Revolutions are born of and reinforce Uncertainty since they generate the unknown and have the potential to unleash even greater nonlinearities through Complexity cascades. Complex systems, like bureaucracies, organically develop defense mechanisms that resist change, sometimes creating unforeseen outcomes when they are challenged. But when they snap, it is often with unexpected timing, force and direction, creating possible chain reactions among connected complex systems. Those risks are even greater when the complex systems are components of a larger complex system, like a nation state, especially one like the United States that is riven by deep internal divisions and severe external challenges, as I described in Leitmotif 6 and Leitmotif 8, respectively, of my May you live in interesting times series.

I have ignored, for now, the risks from abroad to Mr. Trump’s proposed revolution. George W. Bush campaigned on a platform of “compassionate conservatism” social policies and Social Security reform when he was elected president in 2000. Then the 9/11 attacks struck. Events abroad have the potential to fully derail Mr. Trump’s domestic agenda. The risks to global stability that I wrote about in Global entropy: Enter the dragons and in Leitmotif 8 are every bit as serious now as then. I will turn to those risks and their relation to Mr. Trump’s foreign and trade policies before inauguration. But in my next piece (for paid subscribers only) I will address the market and asset allocation implications of Mr. Trump’s revolution at home.

APPENDIX I:

Agenda 47 policies organized by Jacksonian priorities (campaign video, corresponding to the numbers in Appendix II, in parentheses)

A. Increase the accountability of the Executive Branch to presidential authority

• Reinstate Executive Order to remove “rogue bureaucrats” (#22) and require Congress to ratify the president’s authority to do so or face veto of appropriations bills (#39).

• Require all newly proposed regulations to be reviewed by White House (#21).

• Reinstate presidential impound and use to force bureaucracies to implement president’s policies (#15).

B. Rebalance separation of powers between the Executive, Legislative and Judicial branches of government

• Challenge constitutionality of 1974 Impound Control Act to restore presidential prerogative on use of congressionally authorized funds (#15).

• Bring independently regulated agencies (e.g. FCC and FTC) under Executive Branch (#21).

• Reform FISA Courts: Overhaul FISA to prevent misuse by ensuring judicial accountability in warrant applications (#23).

• Asserting presidential prerogative for recess appointments of cabinet members without Senate consent (post-election demand of Senate).

C. Increase the democratic accountability of government

• Impose term limits on members of Congress through a Constitutional amendment (#23).

• Establish physically separate Inspector Generals' offices (#23).

• Ask Congress to establish independent auditing of intelligence services to ensure that they neither spy on nor engage in disinformation campaigns directed at American citizens (#23).

• Establish a Truth and Reconciliation Commission to declassify documents on government abuses (#23).

• Overhaul of Department of Justice, FBI, and national security and intelligence agencies to remove corruption and undue influence (#22, #23, #32).

• Launch investigation into intelligence agencies’ role in unlawful online censorship (#42).

• Require all agency regulatory guidance to be centralized and public (#21).

• Decentralize Federal agencies by dispersing across the country (#23).

• Ban Federal employees and military service members from taking jobs with companies that they deal with or regulate (#23, #32, #42, #44).

• Revoke Biden Executive Order on equity and inclusion; reinstate merit-based systems for hiring, retention and promotion of government employees (#28).

D. Protect individual rights

• Ban any Federal agency from impeding lawful speech by American citizens and enact laws creating clear penalties for any Federal employees engaged in the suppression of free speech (#44).

• Investigate and fire any Federal employees who have suppressed lawful speech by citizens; prosecute for any violations of US law (#44).

• Stop Federal funding for any academic institutions or NGOs that categorize, impede or threaten lawful speech (#44).

• Reform Section 230 of Digital Millennium Copyright Act to limit platform immunity if they engage in censorship (#44).

• Institute new civil service exam with required understanding of Constitutional “limited government,” including due process, equal protection, free speech, religious liberty, Federalism, and the Fourth Amendment protections against search and seizure (#21).

• Civil rights investigations into local district attorneys for selective race-based enforcement of the law (#22).

• Prosecute schools and universities for racial (#13) or gender (#38) discrimination in the name of “equity” under civil rights laws.

• Protect minors from gender transition; create cause of action against companies and local governments, schools that promote; ban men from women’s sports; strengthen parents’ rights over minor children; and ask Congress to define two sexes assigned at birth (#38).

• Protect the right to self-defense and support state reciprocity of concealed carry laws (#22, #33).

• Support a “Parental Bill of Rights” to increase parents’ say over their children’s education (#39).

• Use Establishment and Free Exercise Clauses of First Amendment to block secular politicization of education (#39).

• Protect homeschoolers from discrimination by state or local laws (#6).

E. Promote individual welfare and economic growth

• Establish an “American Academy” to provide free online education and degree credentials for all Americans (#4).

• Promote school choice, project-based learning and skills acquisition, internships, and career counseling for K-12 students (#7).

• Extend 529 Education Savings Accounts benefits to homeschoolers and provide access to extracurricular activities (#6).

• Eradicate homelessness, particularly among veterans, support reintegration and mental health programs (#2, #20).

• Increase support of drug addiction treatment (#17, #20).

• Create incentives for domestic production of critical medicines (#9).

• Establish commission to investigate and address rising chronic childhood illnesses (#16).

• Maintaining Medicare and Social Security benefits (#40).

• Appoint tough, anti-crime US Attorneys to combat corruption and lawlessness (#22).

• Expand resources to combat human trafficking and modern slavery, and legislated death penalty for human traffickers (#10).

• Promote initiatives to enhance infrastructure, manufacturing, and energy availability through deregulation and incentives (#25, #27).

• Invest in innovation to improve the quality of life and reignite entrepreneurship and progress (#27).

• Repeal Federal power plant and electric vehicle mandates (#5, #8, #11).

• Contest to develop ten new “Freedom Cities” with streamlined regulations on federally owned land (#27).

• Reinstate Executive Order and work with Congress to make permanent bans on using retirement funds for ESG investments.

F. Promotion of the interests of average citizens over those of elites and corporations

• Establish an “American Academy,” funded by taxes and fines on elite universities’ endowments, to provide free online education and degree credentials for every American (#4, #13).

• Prosecute academic institutions and NGOs that attempt to impede lawful speech or violate students’ civil rights (#13, #44).

• Reform Section 230 of Digital Millennium Copyright Act to limit platform immunity if they engage in censorship (#44).

• Prevent government collusion with large data aggregators and tech firms (#42).

G. Protect states’ rights and devolution of Federal powers

• Return control over education policy to the states by closing the Department of Education (#7).

• Use of Federal funding “carrots” instead of regulatory “sticks” for states and localities that cooperate with Federal guidelines for education, crime, homelessness (#7, #20, #33).

• Expand federalization through the creation of “Freedom Cities” with streamlined Federal regulation and enhanced local autonomy (#21).

• Repeal Federal mandates for denser multi-family housing in suburbs and protect local control over zoning and development (#24).

H. Promotion of national sovereignty (domestically)

• Secure borders to prevent illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and crime (#1, #2, #3, #19, #26, #33).

• End birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants and birth tourists; citizenship to require at least one parent to be a citizen or legal resident (#19).

• Prevent the use of federal funds for welfare benefits for illegal immigrants and redirect funds used from housing illegal immigrants to eradicate veteran homelessness (#2, #3).

• Remove public housing support, work permits and welfare eligibility for illegal immigrants (#3).

• Enforce criminal penalties for noncompliance with Federal immigration enforcement (#43).

• Declare fentanyl as a federally controlled substance and targeting China’s role in its production (#17).

• Make war on drug cartels and designate them as terrorist organizations (#1).

• Address internal threats like open borders, lawlessness, and dependence on adversarial nations (#26).

• Use National Guard in cities where there is a “complete breakdown of law and order” (#33).

• Promote domestic energy production, manufacturing and countering economic welfare over international climate agreements (#8, #34).

• Phase in tariffs and restrictions on foreign produced medicines and medical equipment, and create incentives for domestic production of critical medicines (#9).

• Implement universal reciprocal tariffs that increase based on other country’s distortionary trade policies (#14, #29, #30).

• Institute a “Strategic National Manufacturing Initiative” to apply to trade deals (#30).

• Launch year-long national celebration of 250^th anniversary of the United States, including a one-time Great American State Fair showcasing all 50 states (#18).

• Rebuild the National Garden of American Heroes (#18).

• Emphasize patriotism in K-12 education (#7).

I. Defend US interests (internationally)

• Rebuild military stockpiles and infrastructure while focusing on procurement efficiency (#12).

• Increase funding for military modernization; reform armed forces to strengthen recruitment (#12).

• End war in Ukraine to reduce threat of broader war and reduce US support for non-strategic wars that deplete US weapons stockpiles. (#12, #26).

• Dismantle “globalist neo-con” establishment in defense, intelligence and foreign service bureaucracies (#26, #32).

• Pursue a “peace through strength” approach to defense and foreign policies (#32).

• Restructure NATO and other alliances to align with America First priorities (#12, #26).

• Develop a comprehensive, state-of-the-art national missile defense shield (#36).

• Restrict Chinese ownership of vital US infrastructure, revoke China’s Most Favored Nation trade status, reduce dependence on trade from China and other adversarial nations for trade, and investigate and boost defenses against Chinese espionage (#14, #30, #35, #41).

J. Fiscal responsibility and reduction of the size and scope of Federal government

• Reinstate first-term Executive Order to cut two old regulations for every new regulation implemented (#21).

• Implement aggressive cost-reduction targets for federal agencies each year (#21).

• Use Impoundment to reassert control over federal spending and policy implementation (#15).

• Department of Government Efficiency charged with slashing size, scope and cost of the Federal government (post-election promise).

APPENDIX II:

Agenda 47 campaign videos summaries

1. War on Cartels

• Objective: Combat drug and human trafficking by declaring war on cartels.

• Designate drug cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations.

• Deploy military assets to enforce a naval embargo on drug cartels.

• Use special forces and cyberwarfare to target cartel leaders and dismantle their operations.

• Seek cooperation from neighboring governments and coerce if not forthcoming.

• Advocate for the death penalty for drug traffickers.

2. End Veteran Homelessness

• Objective: Address homelessness among veterans.

• Prioritize veterans’ welfare over resources allocated to migrants, including reallocation of funding for illegal migrant housing to homeless veterans.

• Commit to eradicating veteran homelessness by the end of the next term.

3. No Welfare for Illegal Immigrants

• Objective: Stop welfare benefits for illegal immigrants.

• End the misuse of parole authority for welfare distribution.

• Reinstate policies to make illegal immigrants ineligible for public housing.

• Terminate work permits for illegal aliens.

• Advocate for legislation to prevent future misuse of welfare distribution to illegal immigrants.

4. The American Academy

• Objective: Reform higher education by creating a free, online university.

• Establish a tuition-free, online educational institution offering “the highest quality educational content, covering the full spectrum of human knowledge and skills.”

• Fund the initiative through taxes and fines on private university endowments.

• Credentials granted, including equivalent to bachelor’s degree, will be recognized by the US government and all Federal contractors equivalent to bachelor’s certifications.

• Provide credit for prior coursework and a platform for accelerated education.

• Make free from any politicization.

5. Message to American Autoworkers

• Objective: Protect the US auto industry.

• Cancel the electric vehicle mandate.

• Criticize union leaders for not fighting against EV mandates.

• Promote tariffs on foreign-made cars to protect US manufacturing.

6. Pledge to Homeschool Families

• Objective: Support homeschooling families.

• Extend use of tax-free 529 Education Savings Accounts allowed for K-12 education expenses to homeschooling expenses.

• Provide access for homeschoolers to extracurricular activities, clubs, and sports available to public school students.

• Support parental rights in education and oppose policies targeting homeschooling.

7. Ten Principles for Great Schools Leading to Great Jobs

• Objective: Improve public education to focus on practical skills and traditional values.

• Respect parents’ control over their children’s education.

• Empower parents and local boards in hiring/firing teachers.

• Remove indoctrination from curricula and refocus it on core subjects like math, science, and literacy.

• Emphasize patriotism and allow school prayer.

• Ensure safe, drug-free schools through discipline.

• Promote school choice, project-based learning and skills acquisition, internships, and provide career counseling for students.

• Close the federal Department of Education and transfer authority to states.

8. America Must Have the #1 Lowest Cost Energy and Electricity on Earth

• Objective: Make US energy costs the lowest globally.

• Prioritize domestic energy production, including oil, natural gas, clean coal, and nuclear energy.

• Modernize the electric grid for reliability and affordability.

• Repeal Biden’s power plant regulations and electric vehicle mandates.

• Establish a national goal for the lowest energy costs globally.

9. Returning Production of Essential Medicines to America and Ending Biden’s Pharmaceutical Shortages

• Objective: Reduce dependency on foreign medicine production.

• Phase in tariffs and restrictions to bring back pharmaceutical production from China.

• Address drug shortages by incentivizing domestic production of critical medicines.

• Prioritize national health security by reducing reliance on foreign suppliers.

10. President Trump Calls for Death Penalty for Human Traffickers

• Objective: Combat human trafficking.

• Reinforce border security to curb trafficking routes.

• Urge Congress to pass legislation imposing the death penalty on human traffickers.

• Expand resources to combat human trafficking and modern slavery.

11. Rescuing America’s Auto Industry from Joe Biden’s Disastrous Job-killing Policies

• Objective: Protect US auto jobs from EV mandates.

• Terminate Green New Deal policies affecting automotive manufacturing, including the electronic vehicle mandate.

• Promote free market choices between electric and traditional vehicles.

• Strengthen domestic production by reversing trade policies detrimental to US auto jobs.

12. Rebuilding America’s Depleted Military

• Objective: Restore and strengthen the US military.

• Involvement in non-strategic wars is rapidly depleting limited US weapons stockpiles and deterring military recruiting, endangering national security and risking World War III.

• Refocus foreign policy on America’s interests first; demand Europe reimburse US for depleted weapons stockpiles.

• Review and reform military procurement to ensure accountability, avoid shortages and rebuild the US defense-industrial base.

• Increase funding for military rebuilding and modernization of depleted forces.

• Strengthen recruitment by restoring honor and tradition in the armed forces.

13. Protecting Students from Radical Left and Marxist Ideologies Infecting Educational Institutions

• Objective: Reform higher education to remove ideological bias.

• Reform college accreditation to enforce standards supporting free speech and Western traditions and remove accreditation from institutions that do not.

• Investigate and prosecute under civil rights laws any educational institutions that practice racial discrimination under equity initiatives.

• Fine the endowments of universities that engage in discriminatory practices and use a portion of the proceeds for restitution payments to those harmed by them.

• Implement standards for free speech, merit-based education, and career preparation.

• Provide affordable and accelerated degree options for students.

14. Cementing Fair and Reciprocal Trade with the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act

• Objective: Ensure fair trade with reciprocal tariffs.

• Enforce reciprocal tariffs to equalize trade conditions with foreign nations.

• Support US farmers and manufacturers by removing trade barriers.

• Reduce dependence on China and other adversarial nations through economic policies.

15. Using Impoundment to Cut Waste, Stop Inflation, and Crush the Deep State

• Objective: Control Federal spending and bureaucracy.

• Challenge the constitutionality of and overturn the Impoundment Control Act of 1974 to restore presidential authority over unspent funds.

• Identify and cut Federal waste, redirecting savings to tax reductions and social programs.

• Use impoundment powers to limit the influence of bureaucratic entities.

16. Addressing the Rise of Chronic Childhood Illnesses

• Objective: Investigate causes of increasing childhood health issues.

• Establish a presidential commission to investigate causes of rising chronic illnesses, including environment and dietary factors.

• Hold pharmaceutical and other corporations accountable for malfeasance or environmental contributions to health crises.

• Publish recommendations for healthier childhood standards.

17. Ending the Scourge of Drug Addiction in America

• Objective: Combat drug addiction and reduce overdose deaths.

• Implement naval embargoes and military actions to target drug cartels.

• Expand treatment access and support community and faith-based recovery programs.

• Strengthen penalties for drug-related crimes and trafficking.

18. Celebrating 250 Years of American Independence at the Iowa State Fairgrounds

• Objective: Celebrate US history and culture.

• Launch a year-long celebration, starting Memorial Day 2025 through July 4th, 2026.

• Establish a national “Salute to America 250” task force to coordinate nationwide cultural and sporting events.

• Create a one-time Great American State Fair showcasing all 50 states.

• Rebuild the National Garden of American Heroes with statues of iconic Americans.

19. Day One Executive Order Ending Citizenship for Children of Illegals and Outlawing Birth Tourism

• Objective: Prevent automatic citizenship for children of illegal immigrants and birth tourism.

• End automatic citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants and birth tourists through Executive Order.

• Require at least one parent to be a citizen or legal resident for a child to gain US citizenship.

• Tighten border controls to prevent abuse of US citizenship laws.

20. Ending the Nightmare of the Homeless, Drug Addicts, and Dangerously Deranged

• Objective: Address urban homelessness and addiction.

• Asserts that the rights of “hard-working citizens” are infringed by homelessness.

• Work with states wherever possible to remove homeless from streets and get them help.

• Ban urban camping and arrest resisters but give option for treatment and rehabilitation

• Relocate homeless to ex-urban tent cities with medical treatment facilities.

• Prioritize reintegration programs for those temporarily homeless or struggling with addiction.

• Reopen mental institutions for severely mentally ill individuals needing long-term care.

21. Liberating America from Biden’s Regulatory Onslaught

• Objective: Reduce regulatory burdens on business.

• Reinstate the “two old regulations repealed for every new one” Executive Order; work with Congress to make permanent.

• Impose aggressive cost reduction targets for each department to shrink the size of government each year.

• Create regulatory transparency by requiring them to be publicized or removed, and by ending the practice of “informal guidance”.

• Require all proposed regulations to be submitted to the White House for review.

• Bring independent agencies like the FCC and FTC under presidential authority.

• Create a streamlined regulatory framework for “Freedom Cities” to accelerate manufacturing, innovation, and safe, affordable living.

• Institute new civil service exam with required understanding of Constitutional “limited government,” including due process, equal protection, free speech, religious liberty, Federalism, and the Fourth Amendment protections against search and seizure.

• “Put unelected bureaucrats in their place” to liberate the economy.

22. Firing Radical Marxist Prosecutors Destroying America

• Objective: End the “corruption and weaponization of our justice system” to restore faith in the “fair and impartial rule of law.”

• Completely overhaul the Department of Justice and FBI.

• Launch a civil rights investigation into “Marxist local district attorneys” who violate civil rights laws through selective enforcement based on race.

• Establish a task force to protect self-defense rights and to prosecute abuse of policing and politically motivated charges.

• Reform the Bar Association to end the purge of conservatives from major law firms.

• Appoint tough, anti-crime US Attorneys to combat corruption and lawlessness.

23. President Trump’s Plan to Dismantle the Deep State and Return Power to the American People

• Objective: Reduce the power of unelected bureaucrats.

• Reissue Executive Order enabling the president to fire rogue bureaucrats.

• Overhaul intelligence and security agencies to prevent misuse of power.

• Reform Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) courts to prevent misuse by ensuring judicial accountability in warrant applications.

• Establish a Truth and Reconciliation Commission to declassify documents on government abuses.

• Identify and punish government employees leaking unauthorized information.

• Physically separate Inspector Generals’ offices from departments they oversee.

• Ask Congress to establish independent auditing of intelligence services to ensure that they neither spy on nor engage in disinformation campaigns directed at American citizens.

• Decentralize federal agencies by relocating jobs outside Washington, DC.

• Ban Federal employees from taking jobs with companies that they deal with or regulate.

• Push for a Constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress.

24. Ending Biden’s War on the Suburbs that Pushes the American Dream Further from Reach

• Objective: Protect suburban zoning and lifestyles.

• Repeal Biden’s equity housing plans that impose denser multi-family housing in suburban neighborhoods.

• Protect zoning for single-family homes and maintain local control over development.

• Safeguard suburban lifestyles from federal overreach.

25. Joe Biden Has Been a Disaster for the Economy

• Objective: Counter economic policies driving inflation.

• Reverse Biden’s tax hikes and slash regulations to lower inflation.

• Restore domestic energy production to stabilize prices and reduce dependency on foreign oil.

• Revive the economy by focusing on American manufacturing and job creation.

26. Preventing World War III

• Objective: Avoid escalation to global conflict.

• Advocate for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and prioritize peace negotiations.

• Dismantle the “globalist neo-con” establishment in the defense, intelligence and foreign service bureaucracies.

• Overhaul NATO to focus on US interests, peace and stability, not globalist ambitions.

• Address internal threats like open borders, lawlessness, and dependence on adversarial nations.

27. A New Quantum Leap to Revolutionize the American Standard of Living

• Objective: Revitalized American living standards through innovation.

• Promote initiatives to enhance infrastructure, manufacturing, and energy systems.

• Invest in innovation and technological advancements to improve the quality of life.

• Contest to develop ten new “Freedom Cities” on federally owned land.

• Reignite the American spirit of entrepreneurship and progress.

28. Reversing Biden’s EO Embedding Marxism in the Federal Government

• Objective: Stop the implementation of equity policies in government.

• Revoke Biden's Executive Order on equity and inclusion.

• Investigate and prosecute any discrimination under these policies; propose a fund to compensate those adversely affected by the policies.

• Reinstate merit-based systems for hiring, retention and promotion.

29. Reclaiming America’s Independence by Slashing Biden’s Disastrous Trade Deficits

• Objective: Reduce trade deficits, particularly with China.

• Reintroduce tariffs correlated with job growth and low inflation

• Revive the Strategic National Manufacturing Initiative to increase domestic production.

30. President Trump’s New Trade Plan to Protect American Workers

• Objective: Protect American workers and industries from unfair trade practices.

• Institute a system of universal tariffs that increase incrementally based on other countries’ subsidies and currency devaluations.

• Institute a Strategic National Manufacturing Initiative for trade deals.

• Revoke China’s Most Favored Nation trade status.

• Eliminate dependence on China for essential goods.

31. President Trump Continues to Lead on Protecting Americans from Radical Leftist ESG Investments

• Objective: Stop the use of retirement funds for political agendas.

• Reinstate Executive Order and work with Congress to make permanent bans on using retirement funds for ESG investments.

32. President Trump Announces Plan to Stop the America Last Warmongers and Globalists

• Objective: Remove globalist influence from foreign policy and keep peace.

• Staff defense and national security positions with America First advocates, not “the warmongers and America-last globalists in the deep state, the Pentagon, the State Department, and the national-security industrial complex.”

• End revolving door of senior military and national security officials into defense contractor employment.

• Pursue peace through strength defense and foreign policies.

33. President Trump Announces Plan to End Crime and Restore Law and Order

• Objective: Enhance public safety and address crime.

• Increase funding for police, protect their legal rights and liability protections.

• Require local jurisdictions to adopt “proven common sense” policing measures to qualify for Federal funds.

• Open civil rights investigations into prosecutors’ offices that selectively enforce laws based on race and give victims of crime cause of action against local officials pursuing lax criminal enforcement.

• Secure the border; tackle homelessness and mental health, crack down on gangs, and advocate death penalty for drug dealers and human traffickers.

• Use National Guard in cities where there is a “complete breakdown of law and order.”

• Institute Federal standards for discipline of minors to reduce school-aged violence.

• Protect right of self-defense and provide Federal protection for reciprocity across state borders for concealed carry permits.

34. President Trump on Making America Energy Independent Again

• Objective: Achieve and maintain energy independence.

• Describes environmental and energy policies as effective tax hikes and threat to national security due to de-industrialization vis-à-vis China.

• Exit international climate agreements like Paris Accord.

• Deregulate domestic energy production to maximize use of domestic resources.

• Institute “maximum speed” approval process of energy infrastructure.

• Approve building new shipping terminals.

35. Stopping Chinese Espionage

• Objective: Counter Chinese intelligence operations in the US

• Expand initiatives targeting Chinese espionage.

• Create partnerships with businesses and universities to protect themselves from insider threats.

• Implement visa sanctions to limit Chinese access to US secrets.

36. President Trump Will Build a New Missile Defense Shield

• Objective: Protect against nuclear and hypersonic threats.

• Develop a state-of-the-are missile defense system to defend against hypersonic missiles.

• Ensure that American adversaries understand their attacks will not be successful and will be met with full retaliation.

37. President Trump Calls for Immediate De-escalation and Peace

• Objective: Negotiate peace in Ukraine quickly.

• Ongoing Ukraine war risks escalation to World War III and is thus a threat to American security.

• Immediate de-escalation efforts, leverage personal diplomacy.

38. President Trump’s Plan to Protect Children from Left-Wing Gender Insanity

• Objective: Oppose gender transition procedures for minors.

• Immediately revoke Biden policies on “gender affirming care”.

• Issue an Executive Order prohibiting Federal agencies from promoting gender transition at any age.

• Work with Congress to cease Federal funding of gender transition at any age and ban all such procedures for children.

• Revoke participation in Medicaid and Medicare and create a private right of action against any healthcare provider engaged in gender transition of minors.

• Investigate and prosecute pharmaceutical companies involved in covering up transition side effects or wrongly marketing transition therapies for unapproved uses.

• Investigate states, school districts and teachers that advocate gender transitions for minors for civil rights violations and eliminate Federal funding.

• Institute a new teacher credentialing body that requires promotion of positive views on the nuclear family and celebrates sex differences.

• Ask Congress to define male and female as the only sexes and that they are assigned at birth.

• Ban men from women’s school sports under Title IX.

• Require parental consultation and consent from schools for minor children to assume a different gender from birth at school.

39. President Trump’s Plan to Save American Education and Give Power Back to Parents

• Objective: Reform education to focus on academics over ideology.

• Promises to maintain spending “twice as much as any other country” on education, but deliver results to match by “putting parents back in charge.”

• Cut Federal funding “for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory, gender ideology, or other inappropriate racial, sexual or political content to children.”

• Open civil rights investigations of any school districts engaged in race-based discrimination against any race.

• Defines Marxism and other secular ideologies as religions; vows to “aggressively” enforce the Establishment Clause and Free Exercise Clause of the Constitution (protections of religious freedom) to expunge from curricula.

• Create a new national credentialing body to certify teachers who support patriotism and eschew indoctrination.

• Provide Federal funding preferences for states and school districts that abolish K-12 teacher tenure and institute merit-based pay; cut school administrators; adopt a “Parental Bill of Rights” with curriculum transparency and school choice; and allow for direct election of school principals by parents.

40. We Must Protect Medicare and Social Security

• Objective: Ensure these programs remain intact.

• Oppose any cuts to these programs to fund other initiatives.

• “Pain should be borne by Washington bureaucrats, not by hard-working American families and seniors.”

• Will cut instead foreign aid, aid to “illegal aliens depleting the social safety net,” gender and DEI programs for the military, climate programs, and waste, fraud and abuse.

41. President Trump Will Stop China From Owning America

• Objective: Reduce Chinese ownership of US strategic assets.

• “We should be very concerned about all Chinese Communist activity in the United States, not just power plants or other critical infrastructure.”

• “As I have long said, economic security is national security.”

• Implement “aggressive new restrictions on any Chinese ownership of any vital infrastructure...including energy, technology, telecommunications, farmland, natural resources, [and] medical supplies.”

• Stop new Chinese purchases and “initiate the process” of selling any current holdings.

42. President Donald J. Trump Calls for Probe into Intelligence Community’s Role in Online Censorship

• Objective: Investigate government involvement in social media censorship.

• Demand Congressional investigation into “deep state” agencies’, including the FBI, efforts to limit or censor “lawful” free speech.

• Demand Congress issue immediate subpoenas demanding record preservation for investigation.

• “End the revolving door” between government and private data aggregators by instituting a 7-year “cooling off period” between employment at the FBI, CIA, NSA and major tech firms or data aggregators.

43. Total Ban on Taxpayer Dollars Used to Free Illegal Aliens and Criminal Penalties for Administrative Noncompliance

• Objective: Prevent the use of public funds for freeing illegal immigrants.

• Enforce criminal penalties for noncompliance with immigration enforcement.

44. President Donald J. Trump – Free Speech Policy Initiative

• Objective: End censorship of lawful free speech.

• Issue an “immediate Executive Order banning any Federal Department or agency from colluding with any organization or business to censor, limit, categorize or impede the lawful speech of American citizens...ban any Federal money from being used to label speech as mis- or disinformation...begin the process of identifying and firing any Federal bureaucrat who has engaged in domestic censorship, directly or indirectly.”

• “Order the Department of Justice to investigate all parties involved in the new online censorship regime...and to aggressively prosecute any and all crimes identified. These include possible violations of civil rights law, campaign finance laws, Federal election law, securities law, anti-trust law, the Hatch Act [using government equipment for political purposes], and a host of other criminal civil regulatory, and constitutional offenses.” Urges the House of Representatives to immediately send preservation letters to the Biden Administration, Biden campaign and every tech giant.

• To “dramatically curtail power to restrict lawful speech,” ask Congress to revise Section 230 of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA) of 1998 on immunity protection to provide only for companies meeting high standards for transparency, fairness and non-discrimination in content curation, while encouraging them to take down child exploitation, terrorism and unlawful content.

• “Immediately halt Federal funding of organizations and academic institutions that participate in categorization or labelling of mis- or disinformation, and that any organizations and academic institutions that engaged in past censorship or election interference, such as flagging media content for removal, blacklisting should lose Federal research funding and student loan support for a period of five years or more.”

• Enact new laws laying out clear penalties for Federal bureaucrats who partner with private organizations “to deprive Americans of their First, Fourth and Fifth Amendment rights.”

• Institute a seven-year “cooling off” period for all FBI, NSA, CIA, DHS, DOD, or other intelligence services’ employees before they are allowed to work for a company “possessing vast quantities of US user data.”

• “A ‘Digital Bill of Rights’ including the right to due process: government officials should require a court order to take down or restrict online content or access, not just ‘information requests,’ before a [media] platform limits, restricts or otherwise impedes your access or distribution, [and] you should be informed and given a specific reason and rights to a timely appeal.”

• All online media users over the age of 18 should have the right to opt out of content moderation and curation and have the option for an “unmanipulated stream of information”.

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1. “Andrew Jackson: Domestic Affairs,” Daniel Feller, Miller Center, University of Virginia (undated).

2. The First Populist, David S. Brown, Simon & Schuster, 2023.

3. From a letter dated 13 November 1787 that Thomas Jefferson sent to William Stephens Smith.

4. An exception was a 16 November article by Aaron Zitner and Siobhan Hughes in The Wall Street Journal that describes one aspect, Trump’s Jacksonian intention to realign the Executive Branch’s power within government: “Trump’s Top Team Sets Stage for White House Power Grab.”

5. 44, really?! You can make nearly four dozen detailed campaign videos for your “Agenda 47,” many of which are repetitive, but can’t do 47 exactly?

6. See campaign video (#27) “A New Quantum Leap to Revolutionize the American Standard of Living.” There are few details but the proposal is to launch a competition to create 10 new cities on Federal land – roughly a third of total US territory – that would have streamlined Federal regulations to encourage innovation and manufacturing.

7. “Pete Hegseth’s plan to overhaul America’s military: ‘You need to fire a ton of generals’,” Peter Charalambous, ABC News, 14 November 2024; and “Trump Draft Executive Order Would Create Board to Purge Generals,” Vivian Salama, Nancy A. Youssef & Lara Seligman, The Wall Street Journal, 12 November 2024.

8. “Trump’s ‘border czar’ vows to cut funding to ‘sanctuary’ states,” Bernd Debusman, Jr., BBC, 25 November 2024; and “’Shock and awe’: What Trump ‘border czar’ Tom Homan has said he plans to do starting on Day 1,” Mike Levine, ABC News, 18 November 2024.

9. “Donald Trump Tells Allies He Wants Robert Lighthizer as His Trade Czar,” Brian Schwartz, The Wall Street Journal, 12 November 2024.

10. “Donald Trump chooses Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead government efficiency effort,” Alex Rogers & Stefania Palma, Financial Times, 13 November 2024.

11. “Trump’s latest move a sign of ‘chaos’ within disorganized Trump transition team: analyst,” Tom Boggioni, MSN, 20 November 2024; “Trump’s Reckless Choices for National Leadership,” Opinion, The New York Times, 18 November 2024; “Rep. Strickland criticizes Trump's pick for Secretary of Defense as ‘irresponsible’,” The National News Desk, 13 November 2024; and “Inside Mar-a-Lago, the chaotic Trump epicenter: patio pitches, transition meetings and rogue guests,” Kristen Holmes, CNN, 10 November 2024.

12. “Trump sets records with pace of appointments, but that doesn't mean the transition is going smoothly,” Zeke Miller, ABC News, 19 November 2024; “The transition to the Trump administration is underway. But it’s already behind,” Tamara Keith, NPR, 9 November 2024; and “Trump’s second term will look nothing like his first,” Kevin Liptak & Kaitlan Collins, CNN, 6 November 2024.

13. “Democratic states are preparing for Donald Trump’s return,” The Economist, 25 November 2024; “How Democrats will try to block Trump’s promise of mass deportations,” Lisa Kashinsky & Rachel Bluth, Politico, 23 November 2024 “Can Newsom’s California Still Lead the Trump Resistance?” Zusha Elinson & Sara Randazzo, The Wall Street Journal, 12 November 2024; and “How blue states are plotting to thwart Trump,” Lisa Kashinsky & Rachel Bluth, Politico, 8 November 2024.

14. “In Mexico, a wave of political murders ahead of elections eats away at democracy,” Reuters, 24 May 2024; see as well Wikipedia entries on the 2011 San Fernando and Cadereyta Jiménez massacres.

15. “Trump is easily susceptible to being manipulated, his former national security adviser warns,” Myriam Page, The Independent, 26 August 2024; and “Want to change Trump’s mind on policy? Be the last one who talks to him,” Amber Phillips, Washington Post, 14 April 2017.

16. “Barack Obama’s War on a Free Press,” Ted Galen Carpenter, Cato Institute, 11 February 2021; and “AP FACT CHECK: Obama was harsh against leakers,” Calvin Woodward & Christopher Rugaber, Associated Press, 11 September 2018.

17. “The right finally protests brutal US jail conditions – but only for January sixers,” Katie Rose Quandt, Solitary Watch, 9 January 2023; and “Jan. 6 defendants win unlikely Dem champions as they face harsh detainment,” Kyle Cheney, Andrew Desiderio & Josh Gerstein, Politico, 19 April 2021.

18. “Obama used the Espionage Act to put a record number of reporters' sources in jail, and Trump could be even worse,” Peter Sterne, Freedom of the Press Foundation, 21 June 2017.

19. “A Brief History of Regulation and Deregulation,” Susan Dudley, The Regulatory Review, 11 March 2019; “The Problem of Bureaucracy,” Ronald N. Johnson & Gary D. Libecap, in The Federal Civil Service System and The Problem of Bureaucracy, Ronald N. Johnson & Gary D. Libecap, eds., University of Chicago Press, 1994; “Bureaucracy in the American Constitutional Order,” Francis E. Rourke, Political Science Quarterly, vol. 102, no. 2, Summer 1987; and “Reforming the Bureaucracy,” American Government, UShistory.org, undated.

20. “The true size of government is nearing a record high,” Paul C. Light, The Brookings Institution, 7 October 2024.

21. “Trump v. the Bureaucrats,” Peter Van Buren, The American Conservative, 25 November 2024.

22. “The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign That Saved the 2020 Election,” Molly Ball, Time, 4 February 2021; “I Am Part of the Resistance Inside the Trump Administration,” anonymous Op-Ed, The New York Times, 5 September 2018 (later revealed as Homeland Security employee Miles Taylor); and “An Anti-Trump Resistance Movement Is Growing Within the U.S. Government,” Abigail Tracy, Vanity Fair, 1 February 2017.

23. “Tales From the Swamp: How Federal Bureaucrats Resisted President Trump,” James Sherk, America First Policy Institute, 1 February 2022.

24. “How Trump’s first year has decimated federal bureaucracy,” Lisa Rein, The Independent, 31 December 2017.